Exam CAPM topic 1 question 319 discussion

This is a question of predictability and probability based on historical velocity. The team scheduled 20 story points. The team historically completes 25 story points per sprint. Each sprint is 2 weeks, and there’s 1 day of float (additional time for flexibility). Why 75–100%? The team consistently delivers more (25) than what they’ve committed to now (20). 20 is within the team's historical capacity, so the team is underloading, likely to ensure quality and manage risk. The 1 day of float increases the buffer, further improving the chances of meeting the commitment. So, the likelihood of completing 20 story points is high—well within the team’s historical performance, hence the probability is in the 75–100% range.