Exam PMP topic 1 question 691 discussion

The correct answer is A. Refer to PMBOK 7 "2.4.2.2 Estimating" p. 57 "Deterministic and probabilistic estimating. Deterministic estimates, also known as point estimates, present a single number or amount, such as 36 months. Probabilistic estimates include a range of estimates along with the associated probabilities within the range. They can be developed manually by (a) developing a weighted average based on multiple likely outcomes, or (b) running a simulation to develop a probability analysis of a particular outcome, usually in terms of cost or schedule"

This indicates that the project manager employed a method that accounts for uncertainties and risks in the budgeting process. Probabilistic analysis involves considering a range of possible outcomes with associated probabilities, providing a more comprehensive and realistic approach to budgeting, particularly in the face of uncertainties.

C. Recurrent team meetings are planned to control the budget against future uncertainties. Is the correct answer.

A. Probabilistic analysis involves considering various possible scenarios and their associated probabilities to develop a budget that accounts for future uncertainties. It is a common technique in project management to address the inherent risks and uncertainties in project budgets.

A. Probabilistic analysis was used to develop the budget to address future uncertainties

PMBOK 7 2.4.2.2

Voting for A. As the question is, how the budget was developed for future uncertainties. C is only a way to track in future.

I am really confused. The budget normally gets determined and approved at the end of the planning phase, not the initiation phase. If this is what they meant in the question, then the answer should be A. Otherwise, the only sensible answer is B. Probabilistic analysis is used in the Performed Quantitative Risk analysis process (PMBOK "Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on overall project objectives.". while are "at the end of a project's initiation phase".

It should be A

A directly addresses the stakeholder's concern by explaining that probabilistic analysis was employed during budget development to account for future uncertainties. This response demonstrates that the project manager considered potential uncertainties and used a systematic approach to develop a budget that can adapt to those uncertainties. C, which states that recurrent team meetings are planned to control the budget against future uncertainties, is not the best choice because it primarily addresses the ongoing control and monitoring of the budget, rather than how the budget was developed to address future uncertainties. While recurrent team meetings can be an effective method for monitoring and controlling the budget throughout the project, they do not directly address how the budget was developed to account for uncertainties during the initiation phase. The stakeholder's question is specifically about the process used for budget development and not about ongoing budget control measures.

A. Probabilistic analysis was used to develop the budget to address future uncertainties. Probabilistic analysis is a technique used to account for uncertainties and risks in project budgeting. The project manager should reply that probabilistic analysis was used to develop the budget to address future uncertainties. This technique involves estimating the probability of different outcomes and assigning values to those outcomes, which are then used to develop a budget that accounts for those uncertainties. By using probabilistic analysis, the project manager can account for potential risks and uncertainties in the project budget, ensuring that the project is adequately funded to deal with any unforeseen events that may arise

By using probabilistic analysis, the project manager can identify the likelihood of different scenarios and outcomes, and incorporate them into the budget. This approach can help address future uncertainties and ensure that the project budget is realistic and flexible.

I'd go with option A. The keyword here to me is "future uncertainties" -- meaning some outcomes that will associated with cost may occur. Probabilistic analysis is a technique used to assess the likelihood of different scenarios and their potential impact on the project budget. By using probabilistic analysis, the project team can develop a budget that takes into account future uncertainties and their potential impact on the project.

C makes sense to me. Lesson learnt should not drive the budget.

Should be b

Is the ans correct?

Stakeholder is not asking about controlling the budget, he is asking how it was developed for future uncertainties, B makes more sense.