Exam LSAT Section 1 Logical Reasoning topic 1 question 362 discussion

Actual exam question from Test Prep's LSAT Section 1 Logical Reasoning

Question #: 362
Topic #: 1

[All LSAT Section 1 Logical Reasoning Questions]

Supervisor: Our next budget proposal will probably be approved, because normally about half of all budget proposals that the vice president considers are approved, and our last five budget proposals have all been turned down.
The supervisor's reasoning is flawed because it presumes, without giving warrant, that

A. the last five budget proposals' having been turned down guarantees that the next five budget proposals will be approved
B. the vice president is required to approve at least half of all budget proposals submitted
C. having the last five budget proposals turned down affects the likelihood that the next budget proposal will be turned down
D. the majority of the last five budget proposals deserved to be turned down
E. the likelihood that a budget proposal will be approved is influenced by the amount of money that budget proposal requests

Show Suggested Answer

Suggested Answer: C 🗳️
The prediction that the next proposal will probably be approved is based on two facts: the last 5 got thumbs down, and "normally about half" get thumbs up. You neednt know the total number of proposals submitted to recognize that C. is the problem: The supervisor has no reason to believe that the last 5 turn downs are relevant, in any way, to the next budget decision. If, contrary to C., the V.P. considers each proposal on its own merits only, then the probability of the next ones success is unaffected, at least in the way the supervisor argues.

by [deleted] at March 9, 2025, 1:45 p.m.

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